In our previous articles relating to the South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP), we have highlighted our concerns that the projected dwelling supply target of 161,700 new dwellings to 2046 for the Gold Coast will be unable to be achieved, particularly at the affordable end of the scale.

You will recall that the recently adopted SEQRP identifies mandatory dwelling supply targets for the Gold Coast to achieve 161,700 new dwellings to 2046 in 4 different housing typologies, being:

  • Detached Dwellings (1-3 storeys), being 17,787 dwellings and representing 11% of the total amount.
  • Low-Rise Attached Dwellings (1 to 3 storeys) being 27,489 dwellings, and representing 17% of the total amount.
  • Medium-Rise Attached Dwellings (4 to 8 storeys), being 16,170 dwellings, and representing 10% of the total amount.
  • High-Rise Attached Dwellings (9 storeys or greater), being 100,254 dwellings, and representing 62% of the total amount.

In our last post relating to the ‘Southern Inter-Urban Break – a Break from Reality’, we expressed doubt that the City has sufficient zoned and constraint free land to accommodate 45,276 new ‘slab on ground’ Detached Dwellings and Low-Rise Attached Dwellings to 2046.

We reflected upon the 2023 Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study which undertook a physical stocktake of land in the former SEQRP’s ‘greenfield or expansion’ area for the Gold Coast in April 2023, and concluded that there is sufficient zoned land for 10,542 new dwellings which would be defined as either ‘Detached Dwellings’ or ‘Low Density Detached Dwellings’ under the new SEQRP building typology definitions. We noted that large areas of zoned land in the study area were subject to environmental constraints and natural hazard constraints which effectively rendered them undevelopable.

Based on our stocktake, that would mean that 34,734 Detached Dwellings and Low-Rise Attached Dwellings would need to be constructed to 2046 within the former SEQRP ‘infill/consolidation’ area. Generally speaking that means that existing dwellings would need to be knocked down to construct more intensive ‘slab on ground’ development such as Duplexes and Townhouses.

Given that there is virtually no vacant land available in the former SEQRP’s ‘Infill/Consolidation’ area on the Gold Coast to accommodate such development, this means that any infill development is likely to consist of small projects which need to contend with the amalgamation of suburban allotments, many of which are likely to be in areas subject to flooding constraints.

In our previous post we identified that the ‘Southern Inter-Urban Break’ could (based on a report prepared by our colleagues at Saunders Havill) accommodate 15,000+ more affordable ‘slab on ground’ dwellings. Our submissions presenting this case have not been acknowledged or addressed by the Queensland Government, and hence this area

is, according to the recently adopted SEQRP, unable to assist in accommodating the Gold Coast’s mandatory target of 45,276 new ‘Detached Dwellings’ and ‘Low-Rise Attached Dwellings’ to 2046.

Our last post concluded with the observation that the Gold Coast is a physically constrained City, with the ocean to the east, the NSW border/Tweed Shire Council to the South, Logan City Council to the north, and mountain ranges to the west. We also pointed out that both our northern and southern neighbours are encountering the same dwelling supply and housing affordability issues that the Gold Coast is experiencing.

While we will inevitably run out of developable land, there is currently a significant supply of land in the ‘Southern Inter- Urban Break’ which is well serviced, and which is not subject to either environmental constraints or natural hazard constraints, and we suggested that we should all be actively investigating the sensible development of this land.

SO WHAT HAS THIS GOT TO DO WITH THE SCENIC RIM COUNCIL AREA?

The Scenic Rim Local Government area (LGA) is located west of the Gold Coast, and is logically the only area in which lower density urban expansion can occur beyond the boundaries of the City of Gold Coast, and which is accessible to central and southern parts of the City. Scenic Rim LGA contains urban centres which are within driving distance of the southern and central parts of the Gold Coast, including Mount Tambourine, Canungra and Beaudesert. While the Scenic Rim LGA is much larger than these 3 centres alone, other parts of the Scenic Rim LGA are probably beyond reasonable driving distance from employment opportunities on the Gold Coast.

Scenic Rim Local Government Area

The main east-west traffic artery connecting the Gold Coast to these centres is the Beaudesert-Nerang Road (State Route 90) which is a two lane/two way State-controlled road with occasional overtaking lanes. This road is about 59 kilometres in length and (as the name suggests) connects Nerang to Beaudesert. While we are sure the travel time varies according to prevailing conditions, a google search indicates that the driving travel time from Beaudesert to Nerang is 48 minutes. Additional time would need to be added to this to reach other destinations on the Gold Coast, and the likely travel time would be something like 1hr 15mins to 1hr 30 mins for peak hour commuting.

Nerang to Beaudesert

So would anyone drive 1.5hrs each way to get to work on the Gold Coast and then travel back home to Beaudesert? We think that is a highly likely outcome if the Scenic Rim is the only source of affordable detached housing in the future.

As an example, it is interesting to note that the Spring Creek development at Beaudesert has been placing full page advertisements in the Gold Coast Bulletin Saturday real estate liftout for freehold house and land packages for $695,000. The developer’s website indicates that vacant blocks of land are in the high $200k to low $300k range. By way of comparison, freehold vacant land alone at the Skyridge development at Worongary is approximately $700k, and this development will essentially be the sole source of freehold land for detached dwellings on the central Gold Coast for the next 5 years.

Spring Creek Sales Brochure

WHAT DID THE DRAFT SEQRP SAY ABOUT THE SCENIC RIM COUNCIL AREA?

The draft version of the SEQRP indicated that the Queensland Government anticipates an additional 8000 dwellings by 2046 within the Scenic Rim LGA.

That equates to 347 dwellings per annum over the 25 year SEQRP period to 2046.

The document also anticipated a future reduction in ‘Detached’ housing supply, an increase in ‘Low-Rise Attached’ dwelling supply, and generally no increase in Medium-Rise Attached Dwellings. The Scenic Rim Council were not required to supply a ‘Dwelling Supply Statement’ to the Queensland Government as other Councils were, and were exempted from a requirement to deliver housing at 20/30 dwellings per hectare.

The draft SEQRP also promotes the Bromelton Industrial area within the Scenic Rim LGA as a significant source of ongoing industrial employment into the future.

WHAT DID WE SAY IN OUR SUBMISSION TO THE QUEENSLAND GOVERNMENT?

In our submission to the Queensland Government relating to the SEQRP we identified that unless sufficient greenfield ‘slab on ground’ housing supply was added to the SEQRP’s ‘Urban Footprint’ on the Gold Coast, it is likely that those

people seeking affordable ‘Detached Dwellings’ on a freehold title (with no body corporate fees) will choose to commute to and from various localities within the Scenic Rim LGA, and will trade off their own time and vehicle running costs, against the more affordable housing which is on offer.

We suggested that, given the Gold Coast is a major source of employment, and the City has almost exhausted its supply of developable ‘Greenfield/Expansion’ land, that those who can no longer afford housing on the Gold Coast will increasingly move to the Scenic Rim LGA. As per our last post ‘Southern Inter-Urban Break – A break from reality’, we suggested that it would be more efficient and practical to use the remaining developable land on the Gold Coast (including the land for 15,000 dwellings as identified in the Saunders Havill report), before having to solely rely on urban land west of the ranges to provide affordable housing for the community.

We also pointed out that if the large Bromelton Industrial area (located west of Beaudesert) is to reach its full potential, it will also require a substantial supply of affordable housing for blue collar workers in the Beaudesert area.

In short, we suggested that the 8000 additional dwellings earmarked for the Scenic Rim LGA to 2046 under the draft SEQRP (or 347 dwellings per annum) would be substantially inadequate to cater for the significant westward population growth caused by Gold Coast employees seeking affordable housing options as greenfield land is exhausted on the Gold Coast.

WHAT DOES THE FINAL VERSION OF THE 2021-2046 SEQRP SAY ABOUT THE SCENIC RIM LGA?

The final version of the SEQRP indicates that the mandatory projected dwelling supply target for Scenic Rim LGA to 2046 has been increased from an additional 8000 dwellings (or 347 dwellings per annum) to an additional 9700 dwellings (or 388 dwellings per annum).

The SEQRP document indicates that this new dwelling growth to 2046 will consist of:

  • 88% ‘Detached Dwellings’ or 8536 new ‘Detached Dwellings’, to 2046 and
  • 12% ‘Low-Rise Attached Dwellings’ or 1164 new Duplexes/Townhouses to 2046

So in summary…

  • The former SEQRP ‘greenfield/ expansion’ area on the Gold Coast is rapidly running out of land to accommodate ‘Detached Dwellings’ and ‘Low Density Attached Dwellings (‘slab on ground’ construction for want of a better term).
  • Our 2023 Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study identified that (as at April 2023) there was sufficient zoned, unconstrained land in the City’s ‘greenfield/expansion’ area to accommodate 4808 ‘detached’ dwellings at a density of less than 25 dwellings per hectare, and 5734 ‘attached’ dwellings exceeding 25 dwelling per hectare. While there may be opportunities for further ‘Detached Dwelling’ development at less than 25 dwellings per hectare within the former SEQRP’s ‘infill/consolidation’ area, we suggest that it is unlikely that much land remains, and that hence the City is likely to run out of land for ‘Detached’ housing within 5 years at current take up rates.
  • The new SEQRP declined to expand the urban footprint in the City of Gold Coast, including potentially catering for a further 15,000+ Detached Dwellings and Low Density Attached dwellings within the Southern Inter-Urban Break (as identified by Saunders Havill Group). The area in question has access to a railways station, existing and proposed motorways, schools, shopping centres, recreational infrastructure and an under capacity waste water treatment facility.
  • Hence in the not too distant future, those whose employment is within the City of Gold Coast and who wish to live in a Detached Dwelling on a freehold block of land (with no body corporate fees), will need to live outside the City and commute to work. Beaudesert is a likely source of affordable constraint free land and housing, and is currently a 48 minute drive to Nerang (according to Google).
  • We think the obvious location to satisfy the Gold Coast’s long term demand for Detached housing is the Scenic Rim LGA and that the vast majority of commuters will be doing so via private motor vehicle.
  • We suggest that the demand for Detached Housing in the Scenic Rim LGA will far exceed the draft SEQRP’s originally projected 8000 new dwellings to 2046, and the final SEQRP’s projection of 9500 new dwellings to 2046, and that this demand will accelerate as land supplies are rapidly depleted on the Gold Coast.
  • This will no doubt create significant infrastructure constraints in the Scenic Rim LGA, including the need for the Queensland Government to spend a large amount of money on the Beaudesert-Nerang Road (State Route 90) to cater for increasing traffic volumes.

Wasn’t the SEQRP’s original intention to avoid these types of outcomes by promoting mostly compact urban communities?

In our next post we will examine the impact of Logan City Council’s recently introduced ‘Temporary Local Planning Instrument’ (TLPI) mandating new and increased flood levels, and how that impacts on SEQRP dwelling supply targets and industrial land supply to 2046 in Logan and the northern Gold Coast.