We raised concerns that the draft SEQRP was placing an unrealistic reliance on high rise buildings to do the heavy lifting to cater for future dwelling supply on the Gold Coast. This is due to the fact that high rise buildings are expensive to construct due to their reliance on high value land, glass, steel, concrete and in many cases, unionised labour. We indicated that high rise buildings are part of a variety of housing types which can increase supply in the City, but that they are unlikely to be provided affordably, and cannot be a substitute for lower density, cheaper to construct ‘slab on ground’ development such as detached houses, duplexes and townhouses. They also typically need to be constructed by tier 1 or tier 2 builders, of which there are very few in SEQ, and take considerable time to be brought to market.

The draft SEQRP 2023 Update stated that an additional 158,100 dwellings were anticipated on the Gold Coast to 2046, of which the lion’s share were anticipated to occur as apartment product, which we considered to be an unrealistic solution to the current dwelling supply and affordability crisis.

THE RESPONSE WE GOT

THE FINAL SEQRP OUTCOME

The most recent SEQRP has made a significant change when compared to the former 2016–2041 SEQRP in the way that it seeks to measure and predict new dwelling supply.

The 2016-2041 SEQRP for the Gold Coast contained 2 mapped areas which were referred to as the ‘Expansion/Greenfield’ area, and the ‘Consolidation/Infill’ area.

These are two specifically mapped areas in the City, with the Expansion area wrapping around the western and northern periphery of the established Consolidation area.

The general intent behind these 2 mapped areas appeared to be to separate the established part of the City of Gold Coast from the peripheral expansion area. The implication seems to have been that lower density ‘slab on ground’ development is intended to occur in the ‘Expansion’ area, while higher density urban consolidation would occur in the ‘Infill’ area. In reality, the 2016-2041 SEQRP just spoke of targets for dwelling numbers and didn’t break the figures down into different dwelling types.

Just to jog your memory, the 2016-2041 version of SEQRP targeted 158,900 new dwellings for the Gold Coast over this 25 year period, of which 31,600 (20%) were anticipated in the ‘Expansion/Greenfield’ area, and 127,120 (80%) were anticipated in the ‘Consolidation/Infill’ area.

The new 2021-2046 SEQRP takes a different path, and does away with the Expansion and Consolidation areas, and replaces these with specific targets relating to 4 specific dwelling types over this 25 year period.

These 4 dwelling types are:

In terms of planning jargon, ‘Missing Middle’ is out, and ‘Gentle Density’ is in.

The final adopted version of the SEQRP also raised the anticipated future dwelling supply on the Gold Coast from 158,100 dwellings to 161,700 dwellings (an additional 3600 dwellings) between 2021 and 2046. The document also anticipates the following dwelling growth targets for each respective dwelling type:

• 11% of total dwellings will be detached dwellings (17,787 dwellings)
• 17% of total dwellings will be Low-Rise dwellings (27,489 dwellings)
• 10% of total dwellings will be Medium-Rise dwellings (16,170 dwellings), and
• 62% of dwellings will be High-Rise dwellings (100,254) – High Rise being defined as 9 storeys or higher.

The new SEQRP contains similar graphs for other Local Government Authorities in Queensland.

Of the 12 LGAs in South East Queensland, the Gold Coast has the highest proportion of future anticipated dwelling supply within High Rise buildings of 9 storeys or more at 62%, with the silver medal going to Brisbane at 30%, and bronze going to the Sunshine Coast with 16%.

Clearly the lion’s share of projected population growth on the Gold Coast is anticipated by the SEQRP to occur in apartment buildings exceeding 9 storeys in height.

So breaking that down into an annual figure over a 25 period, that means the SEQRP anticipates the construction of 4010 apartments per annum in buildings of 9 or more storeys on the Gold Coast every year to 2046.

SO HOW REALISTIC IS THIS OUTCOME?

Well firstly it is worth looking at how many apartment dwellings have been completed on the Gold Coast each year at the front end of the SEQRP’s 25 year projection period. Figures provided by Queensland Treasury (Queensland Government Statistician’s Office), indicate that Title Registrations for allotments accommodating dwelling forms other than detached dwellings (i.e. Low-Rise, Medium-Rise and High-Rise dwellings), on the Gold Coast was:

• 2369 in 2021;
• 1971 in 2022; and
• 2541 in 2023.

Remember these figures relate to all dwellings other than detached dwellings, so the figures are not just counting ‘high- rise buildings’ exceeding 9 storeys, but are also counting duplexes, town houses, low rise apartments etc. In total, the new SEQRP anticipates the construction of a combined 5,756 dwellings per annum in a low-rise, medium-rise and high- rise format, from now to 2046.

While the specific number of completed dwellings contained in High-Rise buildings exceeding 9 storeys is not known for the above 2021, 2022 and 2023 period, it is clear that the City has not produced enough High-Rise, Medium-Rise and Low-Rise dwellings to meet the new SEQRP target, and that we are already approximately 10,000 dwellings behind the nominated 143,913 target for High-Rise, Medium-Rise and Low-Rise dwellings, 3 years into the 2021-2046 SEQRP reporting period.

….and we are in a development boom with many more cranes on the City’s horizon than have been seen for many years.

So in summary current high rise apartment construction, during the middle of a development boom, is not achieving the new SEQRP’s projected annual dwelling supply of 4010 high rise dwellings (of 9 storeys of more) per annum.

But looking at this another way, how many towers would need to be built per annum on the Gold Coast to achieve a high rise apartment supply of 4010 dwellings per annum?

The image below is of the Andrews Project’s recently completed ‘Encore’ tower at 36 Britannia Avenue, Broadbeach. It sits on a 1214m2 site created from the amalgamation of 2 allotments containing older low rise apartments, and consists

of 84 units over 25 storeys. It has a larger number of units than most current apartment projects being constructed on the southern and central Gold Coast coastal strip, but less than some of the larger recently constructed projects such as the 80+ storey Oceans project by Meriton in Surfers Paradise. It is considered to be representative of the middle range of apartment numbers by project on the Gold Coast.

In order to achieve the SEQRP’s 2021-2046 target of 4010 High-Rise apartments per annum, it would be necessary to construct 48 of these Britannia Avenue projects every year to 2046.

Setting aside whether it is physically possible for the development industry (and particularly Tier 1 and Tier 2 builders) to undertake that scale of work (bearing in mind the 2032 Olympic Games commitments and large pipeline of public sector works, labour constraints etc.), how is this outcome going to deliver affordable housing into the Gold Coast housing market?

Recent advice is that construction costs for High-Rise buildings on the Gold Coast is in the range of $4000 to $5500 per m2, excluding land acquisition costs and a typical developers margin of 20% required to obtain bank finance.

How the provision of 100,254 dwellings in High-Rise towers (exceeding 9 storeys) to 2046 will address the ongoing housing affordability issue is the great unanswered question for the Gold Coast arising from the 2021-2046 SEQRP document and associated consultation report.

Thanks for reading and we will examine the SEQRP’s Southern Inter Urban Break in our next post.